Scenario management and automated scenario generation

William McKeever; Duane Gilmour; Lynn Lehman; Anthony Stirtzinger; Lee Krause

doi:10.1117/12.672883

22 May 2006 Scenario management and automated scenario generation

William McKeever, Duane Gilmour, Lynn Lehman, Anthony Stirtzinger, Lee Krause

Proceedings Volume 6228, Modeling and Simulation for Military Applications; 62281A (2006) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.672883
Event: Defense and Security Symposium, 2006, Orlando (Kissimmee), Florida, United States

Abstract

The military planning process utilizes simulation to determine the appropriate course of action (COA) that will achieve a campaign end state. However, due to the difficulty in developing and generating simulation level COAs, only a few COAs are simulated. This may have been appropriate for traditional conflicts but the evolution of warfare from attrition based to effects based strategies, as well as the complexities of 4^th generation warfare and asymmetric adversaries have placed additional demands on military planners and simulation. To keep pace with this dynamic, changing environment, planners must be able to perform continuous, multiple, "what-if" COA analysis. Scenario management and generation are critical elements to achieving this goal. An effects based scenario generation research project demonstrated the feasibility of automated scenario generation techniques which support multiple stove-pipe and emerging broad scope simulations. This paper will discuss a case study in which the scenario generation capability was employed to support COA simulations to identify plan effectiveness. The study demonstrated the effectiveness of using multiple simulation runs to evaluate the effectiveness of alternate COAs in achieving the overall campaign (metrics-based) objectives. The paper will discuss how scenario generation technology can be employed to allow military commanders and mission planning staff to understand the impact of command decisions on the battlespace of tomorrow.

Citation Download Citation

William McKeever, Duane Gilmour, Lynn Lehman, Anthony Stirtzinger, and Lee Krause "Scenario management and automated scenario generation", Proc. SPIE 6228, Modeling and Simulation for Military Applications, 62281A (22 May 2006); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.672883

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