12 January 2024 Extrapolated lifetime prediction of light-emitting diode lights based on equivalent average luminance and accelerated degradation tests
Jianping Zhang, Mengyun Xu
Author Affiliations +
Abstract

To accurately and promptly obtain the conventional lifetime of light-emitting diode (LED) lights, accelerated degradation tests of LED lights under four groups of accelerated stresses were designed and carried out. Three-parameter Weibull function and the right approximation method were used to fit the average luminance degradation test data at each constant accelerated current stress. Combined with the failure criteria, the service lifetime of the samples under each accelerated stress condition was calculated. Then, four groups of accelerated degradation data points were extrapolated by power function and exponential function respectively, and the average lifetime of LED lights was calculated, thereby achieving the estimation of conventional lifetime. The results show that the luminance degradation rate of LED lights is initially fast, then slow, which accurately represents the basic rule of luminance decay. The model established by the Weibull right approximation method exhibits high fitted accuracy for the luminance degradation data of LED lights. By comparing the determination coefficients and the mean absolute percentage errors of extrapolation, it can be found that the conventional lifetime extrapolated by power function has superior accuracy, satisfying the actual project requirements. The relevant research results can provide technical support for the life prediction of LED lights.

© 2024 Society of Photo-Optical Instrumentation Engineers (SPIE)
Jianping Zhang and Mengyun Xu "Extrapolated lifetime prediction of light-emitting diode lights based on equivalent average luminance and accelerated degradation tests," Optical Engineering 63(1), 014105 (12 January 2024). https://doi.org/10.1117/1.OE.63.1.014105
Received: 3 August 2023; Accepted: 21 December 2023; Published: 12 January 2024
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KEYWORDS
Light emitting diodes

Data modeling

Optical engineering

Accelerated life testing

Statistical analysis

Reliability

Manufacturing

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