KEYWORDS: Sensors, Data modeling, Atmospheric modeling, Systems modeling, Control systems, Environmental sensing, Computer architecture, Space operations, LIDAR, Satellites
Under a recently-funded NASA Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) award we are now
designing, and will eventually implement, a sensor web architecture that couples future Earth
observing systems with atmospheric, chemical, and oceanographic models and data assimilation
systems. The end product will be a "sensor web simulator" (SWS), based upon the proposed
architecture, that would objectively quantify the scientific return of a fully functional modeldriven
meteorological sensor web. Our proposed work is based upon two previously-funded
ESTO studies that have yielded a sensor web-based 2025 weather observing system architecture,
and a preliminary SWS software architecture that had been funded by NASA's Revolutionary
Aerospace Systems Concept (RASC) and other technology awards. Sensor Web observing
systems have the potential to significantly improve our ability to monitor, understand, and
predict the evolution of rapidly evolving, transient, or variable meteorological features and
events. A revolutionary architectural characteristic that could substantially reduce meteorological
forecast uncertainty is the use of targeted observations guided by advanced analytical techniques
(e.g., prediction of ensemble variance). Simulation is essential: investing in the design and
implementation of such a complex observing system would be very costly and almost certainly
involve significant risk. A SWS would provide information systems engineers and Earth
scientists with the ability to define and model candidate designs, and to quantitatively measure
predictive forecast skill improvements. The SWS will serve as a necessary trade studies tool to:
evaluate the impact of selecting different types and quantities of remote sensing and in situ
sensors; characterize alternative platform vantage points and measurement modes; and to explore
potential rules of interaction between sensors and weather forecast/data assimilation components
to reduce model error growth and forecast uncertainty. We will demonstrate key SWS elements
using a proposed future lidar wind measurement mission as a use case.
A recently completed two-year NASA-sponsored study on Advanced Weather Forecasting Technologies envisions that given the opportunity to realize key technological advances over the next quarter century, and with judicious infrastructure and technology investments, it may be possible to significantly extend the skill range of model based weather forecasting via real-time two-way feedbacks between computer forecast models and highly networked, intelligent observing systems (Sensor Webs). Through this linkage, the observing system will have access to information about the present and evolving state of the atmosphere and, most importantly, have the intelligence to act on information about the future states of the atmosphere derived from the forecast model. An ultimate aim is full dynamic situation-driven observing system reconfigurability. The system is conceived to enable operational expression of optimized targeted observing. Ideas are presented on how the entire system might be designed and operated from the perspectives of the underlying science, technology evolution, and system engineering in order to provide the needed coordination between and among space- and ground-based observing and forecast model operations. The greatest challenges lay with the development of the large scale deep infrastructure on which the more advanced proposed forecast system functionality depends.
This is a companion paper to "Architecture Vision and Technologies for post-NPOESS Weather Prediction System: Two-way Interactive Observing and Modeling". Our recently completed two-year NASA-sponsored study on Advanced Weather Forecasting Technologies concluded that it may be possible in the future to significantly extend the skill range of model based weather forecasting via a direct real-time two-way feedback between computer forecast models and highly networked, intelligent observing systems (Sensor Webs). The study group developed a high-level Weather Architecture to describe the system (see the companion paper). This paper describes application of the proposed Weather Architecture to a particular weather scenario-the US east coast Blizzard of January 24 and 25, 2000. The objective of the scenario exercise was to help clarify thinking on the architecture functions in light of realistic, tractable (1 to 5 day) forecast situations, and infrastructure and technologies that might be reasonably projected for 2015.
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