Modeling of the Arctic subsea permafrost thawing under possible climate warming

Valentina V. Malakhova

doi:10.1117/12.2688510

17 October 2023 Modeling of the Arctic subsea permafrost thawing under possible climate warming

Valentina V. Malakhova

Proceedings Volume 12780, 29th International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics: Atmospheric Physics; 127804U (2023) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2688510
Event: XXIX International Symposium "Atmospheric and Ocean Optics, Atmospheric Physics", 2023, Moscow, Russian Federation

Abstract

Using the model for sediment thermophysics, we have obtained estimates of the Arctic shelf permafrost state under changes in the seafloor temperature based on simulations with climate models from the 6th phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) through the end of the 23rd century. We used the estimated data of three models from the CMIP6 driven by the scenario with high anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions SSP5-8.5. Within the historical period only minor differences between the scenarios are found, but in the 22nd-23rd centuries, permafrost thawing is 5-10 times faster and the differences between the scenarios with various datasets of seafloor temperatures grow. The average rates of subsea permafrost degradation were 1-2 cm per year for the period of 1950-2015, 5 cm per year for 2015-2100, and 10 cm per year for the period of 2100-2300.

Citation Download Citation

Valentina V. Malakhova "Modeling of the Arctic subsea permafrost thawing under possible climate warming", Proc. SPIE 12780, 29th International Symposium on Atmospheric and Ocean Optics: Atmospheric Physics, 127804U (17 October 2023); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2688510

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