An estimation model of population in China using time series DMSP night-time satellite imagery from 2002-2010

Xiaoyong Zhang; Zhijie Zhang; Yuguang Chang; Zhengchao Chen

doi:10.1117/12.2207575

9 December 2015 An estimation model of population in China using time series DMSP night-time satellite imagery from 2002-2010

Xiaoyong Zhang, Zhijie Zhang, Yuguang Chang, Zhengchao Chen

Author Affiliations +

Proceedings Volume 9808, International Conference on Intelligent Earth Observing and Applications 2015; 98080D (2015) https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2207575
Event: International Conference on Intelligent Earth Observing and Applications, 2015, Guilin, China

Abstract

Accurate data on the spatial distribution and potential growth estimation of human population are playing pivotal role in addressing and mitigating heavy lose caused by earthquake. Traditional demographic data is limited in its spatial resolution and is extremely hard to update. With the accessibility of massive DMSP/OLS night time imagery, it is possible to model population distribution at the county level across China. In order to compare and improve the continuity and consistency of time-series DMSP night-time satellite imagery obtained by different satellites in same year or different years by the same satellite from 2002-2010, normalized method was deployed for the inter-correction among imageries. And we referred to the reference F162007 Jixi city, whose social-economic has been relatively stable. Through binomial model, with average R² 0.90, then derived the correction factor of each year. The normalization obviously improved consistency comparing to previous data, which enhanced the correspondent accuracy of model. Then conducted the model of population density between average night-time light intensity in eight-economic districts. According to the two parameters variation law of consecutive years, established the prediction model of next following years with R²of slope and constant typically 0.85 to 0.95 in different regions. To validate the model, taking the year of 2005 as example, retrieved quantitatively population distribution in per square kilometer based on the model, then compared the results to the statistical data based on census, the difference of the result is acceptable. In summary, the estimation model facilitates the quick estimation and prediction in relieving the damage to people, which is significant in decision-making.

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Xiaoyong Zhang, Zhijie Zhang, Yuguang Chang, and Zhengchao Chen "An estimation model of population in China using time series DMSP night-time satellite imagery from 2002-2010", Proc. SPIE 9808, International Conference on Intelligent Earth Observing and Applications 2015, 98080D (9 December 2015); https://doi.org/10.1117/12.2207575

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KEYWORDS

Data modeling

Satellites

Earthquakes

Satellite imaging

Earth observing sensors

Remote sensing

Data acquisition

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